A Gravity Model Analysis of the Rise in Migration in Indonesia: Evidence from the 2015 Inter Census Population Survey (Supas)

Lestari Ambar Kirana, Nuri Taufiq, Wahyuningsih Wahyuningsih


This study examines the influence of GDP as a proxy for income as well as an indicator for economic development, total population, minimum wage, employment rate, and distance on migration flows between provinces in Indonesia using data from SUPAS 2015. A modified gravity model is specified to test the hypothesis that in the population redistribution, economic development is positively correlated with population concentration. For an empirical test of the model, the time reference of the study is from 2010–2015, and 33 provinces are covered for a total of 1056 observations of migration flows. This paper found that the rise in migration in Indonesia is indeed directed toward more developed regions because the minimum wage and per capita GDP of destination areas have a statistically significant effect on migration flow. In line with classic gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows.

Keywords—rise in migration, gravity model, per capita GDP, minimum wage

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